The 2020 Hurricane Season as a Meteorologist Sees It
Strap yourselves in ... It’s going to be a long hurricane season. But should we expect anything less in the tumultuous year that has been 2020?
It’s a year when we could very well run out of names on our annual list of storm names for the Atlantic Basin. After all, we’re already up to the “K” storm, which this year is Kyle, and it’s only the middle of August, with the meat of the hurricane season awaiting over the next two months. The list has but 21 names, one for each letter of the alphabet with the exception of Q, U, X, Y, and Z. And with a prediction for as many as 25 named storms by long-range hurricane forecasters, don’t be surprised to see Hurricane Alpha, Beta, or Epsilon on the weather map before the end of the year; if we exhaust this year’s list, we turn to the Greek alphabet.
If this is all Greek to you, allow me to explain why the busy season. And yes, there is a better reason than simply “because it’s 2020.” It’s really a combination of factors, a perfect storm of conditions, if you pardon the cliché, that could lead to one of the busier seasons on record.
First, the water temperatures across the Atlantic from the United States to the west African coast are warmer than average. And remember, warm water is the fuel that tropical systems need to form. Cold or warm, the water temperature off of Seven Mile Beach has no impact on our hurricane threat each year, as it’s the warmer ocean water in the tropical breeding grounds farther south that dictate a season’s potential.
Next, a wetter monsoon season across Africa in late summer could lead to more tropical waves emerging into the Atlantic and developing into long-tracked storms. We call those “Cape Verde” storms, as they start near the Cape Verde islands off Africa. Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Gloria (1985) were such storms, to name just two.
Finally, a La Niña may develop, leading to lighter trade winds and lighter wind shear. Strong shear tends to disrupt tropical systems and tears apart its circulation, and stronger storms can form with lighter than normal shear.
It’s a hurricane season that, although still in its infancy, has already scarred the Cape May County landscape. In early August, Tropical Storm Isaias brought 70 mph wind gusts to Sea Isle City, Avalon and Stone Harbor. And let’s not forget to mention Isaias leading to a rare South Jersey tornado touchdown from Strathmere to Marmora, an EF1 twister packing 100 mph winds along its 5¼-mile path. And all that was from “only” a tropical storm. Storms in the heart of the hurricane season have the chance to be much stronger and longer-lived, hence the greater concern in late summer and early fall.
Now, it’s worth noting that while hurricane forecasts have made impressive strides in accurately forecasting how busy or quiet a season will be, there’s still no way of forecasting where the storms will go once they form. And “where” is, of course, the more important question to answer than “how many.” If there are 15 additional storms this year and none hit land, will it be remembered as a busy season? I’ve always said it only takes one storm to define a season, one major hurricane making landfall in a populated coastal area. Hopefully, Isaias is the worst storm that 2020 has to offer.
Unfortunately, I have a feeling that the worst is yet to come. For where, though? In the continental United States, Atlantic hurricanes can strike anywhere from the Texas Gulf Coast to Down East Maine. And although we can see a storm coming for days and therefore can give plenty of warning before it strikes, we still have to wait for these tropical systems to spin up, and forecast them one at a time when they do. Meteorology is still, after all, an inexact science.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs each year from June 1 to Nov. 30, peaking in September. For Cape May County, the most likely time for impacts from storms or remnants coming up the East Coast runs from late August through early October. But Superstorm Sandy striking in late October of 2012 reminded us that the threat extends the length of the hurricane season.
And don’t forget, once hurricane season ends, it’s time for the more informal nor’easter season. There are no official dates or storm names for that, but it is a reminder of the year-round threat for storms that comes with living and vacationing along the Cape May County shoreline.
HURRICANE CHECK LIST
There is a lot to do to get your family and your home prepared when a hurricane is coming. This check list is just a start!
1. Stay up to date on your risk. Hurricanes often happen near the coast, but not always.
2. Have a plan. Make sure everyone in your home knows and understands this plan. It should include where to move your car in case flooding is predicted, and where you can go if you need to leave your home.
3. Check your supplies. Check to make sure you have enough of everything you need in case you can’t make it to the store or you lose power for a few days. This list should include but isn’t limited to: medications, cleaning supplies, food, water, flashlights, batteries and pet supplies.
4. Pack a bag. Be prepared to leave quickly in the event that it is no longer safe to stay. Make sure you have all your medications, important documents, your driver’s license, cash, etc.
5. Know the evacuation routes. There are times when you have to leave immediately. Make sure you know what roads you are supposed to take and which ones to avoid in order for you to get quickly and safely out of town.
6. Those with disabilities or medical issues. If you might need extra help in the case of an emergency, prepare for it now.
7. Sign up for alerts and warnings. Download the FEMA app onto your smartphone and you can stay up-to-the-second with information in your area. Make sure you are signed up for all local alerts as well.
8. Prepare your home. Bring in outside furniture and anything that might blow away with strong winds.
9. Charge your electronics. If you lose electricity, you want your battery to be at full strength in case there is an emergency.
