Hurricane Season: One for the Record Books?

Sure, you can look skeptically at the headline for a record-setting hurricane season and think it’s hype or “click bait.”

After all, the science of meteorology is what some call an “inexact science,” among many other things not fit to print.

You’ll get no argument from me. It’s sometimes a challenge to get tomorrow’s forecast correct, let alone a forecast that looks months into the future. So a seasonal outlook could be looked at as a fool’s errand of sorts.

Yet the annual hurricane outlook, in my humble opinion, is the gold standard of longer-range forecasts. While that certainly doesn’t imply flawlessness or perfection, the seasonal hurricane forecasts have been a steadily reliable and fairly accurate source for predicting a quiet or active season in the Atlantic basin.

So when the experts at both NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and Colorado State University – the two leading sources for seasonal tropical forecasts – issue predictions for one of the most active seasons on record, the public should take note.

And that’s perhaps one of the more useful consequences of an annual hurricane forecast. It gets coastal residents, from Seven Mile Beach to Key West and every point in between thinking about hurricane season, and hopefully preparing as a result. While we’re fortunate to always have advanced warning of at least a few days, sometimes up to a week, before a hurricane strike, it’s never too early to prepare.

What type of year should we be preparing for? Well, as the headline suggests, the simple answer is an active one. Let’s first define a normal season in the Atlantic basin. In an “average” year, we expect 14 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes, and three of those turn into major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). It’s also worth a reminder that these averages have ticked up over the last few decades, as climate change has in part led to more active hurricane seasons in general.

This year, NOAA is forecasting 17 to 24 named storms in total, 8 to 14 of which could become hurricanes, and 4-to-7 major hurricanes. That’s the highest number of storms ever predicted in a seasonal forecast. The forecasters at Colorado State predict similarly active numbers: 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes.

As of Aug. 15, there have already been five named storms in the Atlantic: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, and Ernesto. Of those, Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic, striking some of the Caribbean Islands hard, as well as parts of Mexico and then Texas. Debby was a hurricane that struck Florida, and caused flooding rains and tornadoes in the Carolinas and Georgia before its remnants provided us with some tidal flooding and squally rains in early August. Ernesto followed shortly thereafter, impacting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda with heavy rain and wind.

The rest of the 2024 names are as follows: Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafale, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.

Let’s remember the hurricane season runs each year from June 1 through Nov. 30. However, the most active time by far is a two-month stretch from Aug. 15 through Oct. 15. That’s also the time when Seven Mile Beach and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coast, are most vulnerable for direct impacts from tropical systems. The ocean water is typically at its warmest, and storms can often be at their strongest during this extended peak period.

And it’s that warm water, which is especially and anomalously warm throughout almost the entire Atlantic basin this year, that’s fueling the dire predictions for a hyper-active season. Hurricanes feed off warm ocean water, so the warmer the water and the more widespread the warmth, the more favorable things are for tropical mischief through this fall.

A second reason for the expected higher activity: La Nina. It’s a great illustration of how interconnected our weather is with the rest of the world. La Nina occurs when the ocean waters in the tropical eastern Pacific cool, which in turn causes less wind shear in the Atlantic, which then allows hurricanes to intensify with less disruption.

Now remember that forecasting is that “inexact” science previously discussed. So, La Nina may be slow to form, or the ocean water could slowly cool. There’s also the chance of an unforeseen factor, like an abundance of dust from the Sahara Desert taking up residence over the tropical Atlantic breeding grounds, limiting development. But the safe bet would be on getting through most of that list of names listed above before the season ends just after Thanksgiving.

Hurricane forecasting has come a long way, especially in forecasting the number of storms each season. However, forecasting where those storms are more likely to go months in advance is still impossible. In fact, determining a storm’s track a week in advance can still have its challenges.

So, it’s impossible to say if South Jersey is more or less likely than any other part of the East Coast to see a tropical system impact this season. However, obviously the more storms there are, the higher the chance that one of those storms, or its remnants, could impact any given area. For that reason, chances for a wetter than average fall are higher than normal, with the thought being that there could be plenty of tropical activity, or leftover tropical moisture, along the East Coast from late summer through mid-autumn. As always, time will tell.